Sestak vs. Specter - 2010 PA Senate Primary

It is a long way from May 18, 2010, the date of the 2010 PA senate primary but it is not too early to preview the Joe Sestak vs. Arlen Specter contest. For now, let's stick to the bigger picture view of this contest and save the analyses regarding the individual counties to a later date.

This race will be a study in contrasts. Sestak, who officially announced his candidacy last week, will attempt to defeat Specter by running a grassroots campaign that will focus on criss-crossing the state and on maximizing voter turnout. Specter will rely on traditional media and hope that Obama and the other Democratic leaders help him across the finish line.

Joe Sestak, currently representing the 7th district in congress is known for his long hours and slave driving ways. He is not an easy man to work with and can be quite caustic to those closest to him. With the exception of the caustic part, these are the qualities that he will need to defeat Specter in the primary. His liberal views are closer to the typical Democratic primary voter than Specter's whose views seemingly shift with the wind. The key for Sestak will be to maximize his natural base in the population centers and keep the race close elsewhere. The pitfall that could derail his campaign is funding. Obama, having promised Specter a clear field, may have his pit bull, Rahm Emanuel, lean on the wealthy left and convince them that funding Sestak would be a bad idea.

Sestak's long history in the military should prove to be of value in this contest. I can see him developing a very strong get out the vote program that is very organized and precise. He should be able to find enough college students to work as soldiers in the field unless Obama strongly supports Specter and publicly reprimands Sestak for having the audacity of defying his wishes for Specter to have a clear field.

That brings us to Arlen Specter. This is a conundrum to say the least. The Democrat, then Republican, now a Democrat again appears to have no base. He admitted to leaving the GOP because his loss was a fait accompli in a primary race against Pat Toomey. Obviously, Specter never expected a challenger in the Democratic primary. Republicans and Democrats in PA don't agree on much. However, they both agree that Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate.

Specter likes to think of himself as "independent". This is really just another term for unprincipled. Having no base, where does he turn for votes? Will liberal Democrats ever really trust him? Will they be enthusiastic about his campaign. Can anyone picture hoards of college students going door to door pleading with people to vote for Arlen Specter. Will minorities and women's groups hold rallies for Specter? Can anyone envision that happening? I think we will sooner see Rosie O'Donnell in a size zero micro mini dress than thousands of feminists chanting, "we want Arlen". Can he possibly match Sestak's drive and energy?

Specter is hoping that the support of the Democratic leaders will pull him through. Just 3 months ago, this would have been a viable strategy. Specter expected the normally popular Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, to be a big benefit in his campaign. Arlen gave Rendell his first job in politics, as an assistant district attorney for the city of Philadelphia, and was counting on Rendell to deliver for him. Rendell's popularity has plummeted over the last 3 months due to his insistence on raising the states income tax by 16%. Many state employees (including my mother-in-law) are either not being paid or are receiving partial paychecks. Rendell is taking the hit on this and his attempts to demonize the Republicans are not resonating with the people. Further, Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership have lost support in Pennsylvania although that lose of support is much more difficult to quantify than Randell's.

This contest puts President Obama in an awkward situation. Having promised Specter a clear field, he must now support him over someone who is clearly more aligned with his agenda. True, Obama could throw Specter overboard but I doubt that he will do so. While Specter is in the Senate, Obama needs his support. In short, Obama almost has to support him lest Specter. If not, then Specter could torpedo Obama's agenda. While nominally a Democrat, Specter could align himself with the Republicans and allow the GOP to filibuster his entire legislative agenda.

I predict that Obama will support Specter but will do so in a manner that is a little bit less than 100% enthusiastic. He will not try to undermine Sestak by strong-arming campaign donors but will make it clear that he supports Specter.

All polls, as of now and for the next few months, will point to a Specter victory. Do not be fooled - this support is soft and is basically a product of Sestak's lack of name recognition. That will change between now and January. The liberal voters in the 2010 PA senate primary race have very little reason to be loyal to Arlen Specter who has shown loyalty to no one in his political career. They will not need to be pushed hard to vote for Sestak.

In January, the race should become a dead heat. By April, it should become apparent that Arlen Specter's days in the U.S. Senate are numbered. How ironic would it be for Specter to lose in the Democratic primary after switching parties to avoid certain defeat in the Republican primary?

For the record, Specter's defeat in the primary is NOT good news for the GOP. Sestak is clearly the better candidate for the Democrats in the general election assuming that Pat Toomey is the Republican candidate. Toomey would handily defeat Arlen Specter but in Sestak he will face a an opponent who may be able to draw out some of the same voters as Barack Obama did last year. A general election campaign that pits Joe Sestak against Pat Toomey will in all likelihood be razor tight with a margin of victory 3% or less for either side.