Sestak vs. Specter - 2010 PA Senate Primary

It is a long way from May 18, 2010, the date of the 2010 PA senate primary but it is not too early to preview the Joe Sestak vs. Arlen Specter contest. For now, let's stick to the bigger picture view of this contest and save the analyses regarding the individual counties to a later date.

This race will be a study in contrasts. Sestak, who officially announced his candidacy last week, will attempt to defeat Specter by running a grassroots campaign that will focus on criss-crossing the state and on maximizing voter turnout. Specter will rely on traditional media and hope that Obama and the other Democratic leaders help him across the finish line.

Joe Sestak, currently representing the 7th district in congress is known for his long hours and slave driving ways. He is not an easy man to work with and can be quite caustic to those closest to him. With the exception of the caustic part, these are the qualities that he will need to defeat Specter in the primary. His liberal views are closer to the typical Democratic primary voter than Specter's whose views seemingly shift with the wind. The key for Sestak will be to maximize his natural base in the population centers and keep the race close elsewhere. The pitfall that could derail his campaign is funding. Obama, having promised Specter a clear field, may have his pit bull, Rahm Emanuel, lean on the wealthy left and convince them that funding Sestak would be a bad idea.

Sestak's long history in the military should prove to be of value in this contest. I can see him developing a very strong get out the vote program that is very organized and precise. He should be able to find enough college students to work as soldiers in the field unless Obama strongly supports Specter and publicly reprimands Sestak for having the audacity of defying his wishes for Specter to have a clear field.

That brings us to Arlen Specter. This is a conundrum to say the least. The Democrat, then Republican, now a Democrat again appears to have no base. He admitted to leaving the GOP because his loss was a fait accompli in a primary race against Pat Toomey. Obviously, Specter never expected a challenger in the Democratic primary. Republicans and Democrats in PA don't agree on much. However, they both agree that Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate.

Specter likes to think of himself as "independent". This is really just another term for unprincipled. Having no base, where does he turn for votes? Will liberal Democrats ever really trust him? Will they be enthusiastic about his campaign. Can anyone picture hoards of college students going door to door pleading with people to vote for Arlen Specter. Will minorities and women's groups hold rallies for Specter? Can anyone envision that happening? I think we will sooner see Rosie O'Donnell in a size zero micro mini dress than thousands of feminists chanting, "we want Arlen". Can he possibly match Sestak's drive and energy?

Specter is hoping that the support of the Democratic leaders will pull him through. Just 3 months ago, this would have been a viable strategy. Specter expected the normally popular Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, to be a big benefit in his campaign. Arlen gave Rendell his first job in politics, as an assistant district attorney for the city of Philadelphia, and was counting on Rendell to deliver for him. Rendell's popularity has plummeted over the last 3 months due to his insistence on raising the states income tax by 16%. Many state employees (including my mother-in-law) are either not being paid or are receiving partial paychecks. Rendell is taking the hit on this and his attempts to demonize the Republicans are not resonating with the people. Further, Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership have lost support in Pennsylvania although that lose of support is much more difficult to quantify than Randell's.

This contest puts President Obama in an awkward situation. Having promised Specter a clear field, he must now support him over someone who is clearly more aligned with his agenda. True, Obama could throw Specter overboard but I doubt that he will do so. While Specter is in the Senate, Obama needs his support. In short, Obama almost has to support him lest Specter. If not, then Specter could torpedo Obama's agenda. While nominally a Democrat, Specter could align himself with the Republicans and allow the GOP to filibuster his entire legislative agenda.

I predict that Obama will support Specter but will do so in a manner that is a little bit less than 100% enthusiastic. He will not try to undermine Sestak by strong-arming campaign donors but will make it clear that he supports Specter.

All polls, as of now and for the next few months, will point to a Specter victory. Do not be fooled - this support is soft and is basically a product of Sestak's lack of name recognition. That will change between now and January. The liberal voters in the 2010 PA senate primary race have very little reason to be loyal to Arlen Specter who has shown loyalty to no one in his political career. They will not need to be pushed hard to vote for Sestak.

In January, the race should become a dead heat. By April, it should become apparent that Arlen Specter's days in the U.S. Senate are numbered. How ironic would it be for Specter to lose in the Democratic primary after switching parties to avoid certain defeat in the Republican primary?

For the record, Specter's defeat in the primary is NOT good news for the GOP. Sestak is clearly the better candidate for the Democrats in the general election assuming that Pat Toomey is the Republican candidate. Toomey would handily defeat Arlen Specter but in Sestak he will face a an opponent who may be able to draw out some of the same voters as Barack Obama did last year. A general election campaign that pits Joe Sestak against Pat Toomey will in all likelihood be razor tight with a margin of victory 3% or less for either side.

Pennsylvania 2010 Senate Primary Race - Sestak and Specter

It is now official. Joe Sestak, one time Admiral in the Navy and now a Pennsylvania congressman representing the 7th district, announced that he will run against one time Democrat, then Republican and now Democrat again, Arlen Specter in 2010's Pennsylvania Senate primary race.

This promises to be an exciting and bruising primary. Pass the popcorn - this is going to be fun. The liberal Joe Sestak versus the "whatever" Arlen Specter is a study in contrasts. Specter is going to rely on his relationships with President Obama and Democratic leaders much like he did in the 2004 primary against Pat Toomey. Only then, the leaders that came to his aid were George W. Bush and Rick Santorum. Specter prevailed by less than 1% to a congressman who was hardly known outside his district. So much for loyalty.

The Specter camp has fired the first salvo as noted by philly.com:

"He hardly deserves a promotion since he has missed 105 House votes this year, which is the worst attendance record of any Pennsylvania Congressman," Specter Campaign Manager Christopher Nicholas said in a statement. Sestak "should explain why, when Pennsylvanians are working harder, he can barely show up for work," Nicholas added.

The GOP needs to personally thank Arlen Specter for providing needed ammunition against Joe Sestak should he prevail against Specter. Perhaps a candy gram would suffice. Then again, the candy may be hard for Arlen's dentures to handle. Let's stick to a Hallmark card.

President Obama is now put into a precarious situation. Does he support Specter, after encouraging him to switch parties and embracing him, does he support Sestak who is closer to him on almost every policy issue, or does he just stay out of the way? All 3 choices have potential negative consequences. Obama can dial up George W. Bush and ask him how he was repaid by Arlen after going to the mat for him in 2004, thus alienating many of the conservatives who represent the base of the party.

While it is very early, I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Joe Sestak will help Arlen Specter retire next summer after Sestak defeats Specter by double digits. Pennsylvania is a state that responds well to grassroots efforts - see Ed Rendell's primary run in 2002 against Bob Casey as exhibit A. Sestak, who will never be confused for a centrist, will not be outworked. He has traveled to all 67 counties and is building support the old fashioned way - by meeting people. In contrast, Specter, by publicly carrying Obama's water on health care reform, is earning the enmity of the people. Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania agree on almost nothing. The one thing they do agree on is that they both dislike Specter as evidenced by a poll from the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College and reported by the Philadelphia Daily News on June 25, 2009:

Specter's party switch, announced April 28, has hurt his job-performance ratings among Democrats as well as Republicans, according to a telephone survey of 498 registered voters, conducted last week by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. Back in March, before the switch, roughly half the voters in each party said that Specter was doing an "excellent" or "good" job in the Senate.

Those numbers have plunged in the latest survey. Whereas 57 percent of Democrats gave him good or excellent ratings in March, only 46 percent rate him as highly now. Among Republicans, 49 percent rated his job performance as good or excellent in March, and only 18 percent gave him those ratings last week. "Even more troubling for the senator is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40 percent to 28 percent," said the poll's director, G. Terry Madonna.

"I think what he's got going is the worst of both worlds," Madonna said. "Republicans have fallen away from him because he left his party, and Democrats are unhappy with him for lots of different reasons. . . . Voters have a lot of uncertainty about what he is likely to do."

In contrast to the bruising battle ahead for Sestak and Specter, the Republican candidate, former Lehigh Valley congressman Pat Toomey, has virtually a clear field if one discounts a fringe challenger like Peg Luksik. Toomey's status has grown and his message is very simple; give the people more of their own money and stay out of there way. All of a sudden this notion has become very popular with Americans as noted by Obama's plunging poll numbers over the last 6 weeks. Clearly, Toomey will be the winner should the Sestak and Specter race turn ugly. This is as likely as Rosie O'Donnell finishing an entire chocolate cake in one sitting. Toomey's strategy is evident in the following quote related to the Sestak v. Specter race from today's philly.com:

"Pennsylvania Democrats will make an important choice between Joe Sestak, a consistent liberal who really believes in his values, and Arlen Specter, a career political opportunist who believes in nothing but his own reelection," the campaign of Pat Toomey said in a statement.

That is absolutely brilliant. In one fell swoop, he labels Sestak a government controlling, tax and spend liberal and Specter as unprincipled. The general election for Pennsylvania's 2010 Senate race will be a treat to watch no matter who the Democratic candidate is in the end.