Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Sestak vs. Specter - 2010 PA Senate Primary
It is a long way from May 18, 2010, the date of the 2010 PA senate primary but it is not too early to preview the Joe Sestak vs. Arlen Specter contest. For now, let's stick to the bigger picture view of this contest and save the analyses regarding the individual counties to a later date.
This race will be a study in contrasts. Sestak, who officially announced his candidacy last week, will attempt to defeat Specter by running a grassroots campaign that will focus on criss-crossing the state and on maximizing voter turnout. Specter will rely on traditional media and hope that Obama and the other Democratic leaders help him across the finish line.
Joe Sestak, currently representing the 7th district in congress is known for his long hours and slave driving ways. He is not an easy man to work with and can be quite caustic to those closest to him. With the exception of the caustic part, these are the qualities that he will need to defeat Specter in the primary. His liberal views are closer to the typical Democratic primary voter than Specter's whose views seemingly shift with the wind. The key for Sestak will be to maximize his natural base in the population centers and keep the race close elsewhere. The pitfall that could derail his campaign is funding. Obama, having promised Specter a clear field, may have his pit bull, Rahm Emanuel, lean on the wealthy left and convince them that funding Sestak would be a bad idea.
Sestak's long history in the military should prove to be of value in this contest. I can see him developing a very strong get out the vote program that is very organized and precise. He should be able to find enough college students to work as soldiers in the field unless Obama strongly supports Specter and publicly reprimands Sestak for having the audacity of defying his wishes for Specter to have a clear field.
That brings us to Arlen Specter. This is a conundrum to say the least. The Democrat, then Republican, now a Democrat again appears to have no base. He admitted to leaving the GOP because his loss was a fait accompli in a primary race against Pat Toomey. Obviously, Specter never expected a challenger in the Democratic primary. Republicans and Democrats in PA don't agree on much. However, they both agree that Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate.
Specter likes to think of himself as "independent". This is really just another term for unprincipled. Having no base, where does he turn for votes? Will liberal Democrats ever really trust him? Will they be enthusiastic about his campaign. Can anyone picture hoards of college students going door to door pleading with people to vote for Arlen Specter. Will minorities and women's groups hold rallies for Specter? Can anyone envision that happening? I think we will sooner see Rosie O'Donnell in a size zero micro mini dress than thousands of feminists chanting, "we want Arlen". Can he possibly match Sestak's drive and energy?
Specter is hoping that the support of the Democratic leaders will pull him through. Just 3 months ago, this would have been a viable strategy. Specter expected the normally popular Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, to be a big benefit in his campaign. Arlen gave Rendell his first job in politics, as an assistant district attorney for the city of Philadelphia, and was counting on Rendell to deliver for him. Rendell's popularity has plummeted over the last 3 months due to his insistence on raising the states income tax by 16%. Many state employees (including my mother-in-law) are either not being paid or are receiving partial paychecks. Rendell is taking the hit on this and his attempts to demonize the Republicans are not resonating with the people. Further, Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership have lost support in Pennsylvania although that lose of support is much more difficult to quantify than Randell's.
This contest puts President Obama in an awkward situation. Having promised Specter a clear field, he must now support him over someone who is clearly more aligned with his agenda. True, Obama could throw Specter overboard but I doubt that he will do so. While Specter is in the Senate, Obama needs his support. In short, Obama almost has to support him lest Specter. If not, then Specter could torpedo Obama's agenda. While nominally a Democrat, Specter could align himself with the Republicans and allow the GOP to filibuster his entire legislative agenda.
I predict that Obama will support Specter but will do so in a manner that is a little bit less than 100% enthusiastic. He will not try to undermine Sestak by strong-arming campaign donors but will make it clear that he supports Specter.
All polls, as of now and for the next few months, will point to a Specter victory. Do not be fooled - this support is soft and is basically a product of Sestak's lack of name recognition. That will change between now and January. The liberal voters in the 2010 PA senate primary race have very little reason to be loyal to Arlen Specter who has shown loyalty to no one in his political career. They will not need to be pushed hard to vote for Sestak.
In January, the race should become a dead heat. By April, it should become apparent that Arlen Specter's days in the U.S. Senate are numbered. How ironic would it be for Specter to lose in the Democratic primary after switching parties to avoid certain defeat in the Republican primary?
For the record, Specter's defeat in the primary is NOT good news for the GOP. Sestak is clearly the better candidate for the Democrats in the general election assuming that Pat Toomey is the Republican candidate. Toomey would handily defeat Arlen Specter but in Sestak he will face a an opponent who may be able to draw out some of the same voters as Barack Obama did last year. A general election campaign that pits Joe Sestak against Pat Toomey will in all likelihood be razor tight with a margin of victory 3% or less for either side.
This race will be a study in contrasts. Sestak, who officially announced his candidacy last week, will attempt to defeat Specter by running a grassroots campaign that will focus on criss-crossing the state and on maximizing voter turnout. Specter will rely on traditional media and hope that Obama and the other Democratic leaders help him across the finish line.
Joe Sestak, currently representing the 7th district in congress is known for his long hours and slave driving ways. He is not an easy man to work with and can be quite caustic to those closest to him. With the exception of the caustic part, these are the qualities that he will need to defeat Specter in the primary. His liberal views are closer to the typical Democratic primary voter than Specter's whose views seemingly shift with the wind. The key for Sestak will be to maximize his natural base in the population centers and keep the race close elsewhere. The pitfall that could derail his campaign is funding. Obama, having promised Specter a clear field, may have his pit bull, Rahm Emanuel, lean on the wealthy left and convince them that funding Sestak would be a bad idea.
Sestak's long history in the military should prove to be of value in this contest. I can see him developing a very strong get out the vote program that is very organized and precise. He should be able to find enough college students to work as soldiers in the field unless Obama strongly supports Specter and publicly reprimands Sestak for having the audacity of defying his wishes for Specter to have a clear field.
That brings us to Arlen Specter. This is a conundrum to say the least. The Democrat, then Republican, now a Democrat again appears to have no base. He admitted to leaving the GOP because his loss was a fait accompli in a primary race against Pat Toomey. Obviously, Specter never expected a challenger in the Democratic primary. Republicans and Democrats in PA don't agree on much. However, they both agree that Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate.
Specter likes to think of himself as "independent". This is really just another term for unprincipled. Having no base, where does he turn for votes? Will liberal Democrats ever really trust him? Will they be enthusiastic about his campaign. Can anyone picture hoards of college students going door to door pleading with people to vote for Arlen Specter. Will minorities and women's groups hold rallies for Specter? Can anyone envision that happening? I think we will sooner see Rosie O'Donnell in a size zero micro mini dress than thousands of feminists chanting, "we want Arlen". Can he possibly match Sestak's drive and energy?
Specter is hoping that the support of the Democratic leaders will pull him through. Just 3 months ago, this would have been a viable strategy. Specter expected the normally popular Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, to be a big benefit in his campaign. Arlen gave Rendell his first job in politics, as an assistant district attorney for the city of Philadelphia, and was counting on Rendell to deliver for him. Rendell's popularity has plummeted over the last 3 months due to his insistence on raising the states income tax by 16%. Many state employees (including my mother-in-law) are either not being paid or are receiving partial paychecks. Rendell is taking the hit on this and his attempts to demonize the Republicans are not resonating with the people. Further, Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership have lost support in Pennsylvania although that lose of support is much more difficult to quantify than Randell's.
This contest puts President Obama in an awkward situation. Having promised Specter a clear field, he must now support him over someone who is clearly more aligned with his agenda. True, Obama could throw Specter overboard but I doubt that he will do so. While Specter is in the Senate, Obama needs his support. In short, Obama almost has to support him lest Specter. If not, then Specter could torpedo Obama's agenda. While nominally a Democrat, Specter could align himself with the Republicans and allow the GOP to filibuster his entire legislative agenda.
I predict that Obama will support Specter but will do so in a manner that is a little bit less than 100% enthusiastic. He will not try to undermine Sestak by strong-arming campaign donors but will make it clear that he supports Specter.
All polls, as of now and for the next few months, will point to a Specter victory. Do not be fooled - this support is soft and is basically a product of Sestak's lack of name recognition. That will change between now and January. The liberal voters in the 2010 PA senate primary race have very little reason to be loyal to Arlen Specter who has shown loyalty to no one in his political career. They will not need to be pushed hard to vote for Sestak.
In January, the race should become a dead heat. By April, it should become apparent that Arlen Specter's days in the U.S. Senate are numbered. How ironic would it be for Specter to lose in the Democratic primary after switching parties to avoid certain defeat in the Republican primary?
For the record, Specter's defeat in the primary is NOT good news for the GOP. Sestak is clearly the better candidate for the Democrats in the general election assuming that Pat Toomey is the Republican candidate. Toomey would handily defeat Arlen Specter but in Sestak he will face a an opponent who may be able to draw out some of the same voters as Barack Obama did last year. A general election campaign that pits Joe Sestak against Pat Toomey will in all likelihood be razor tight with a margin of victory 3% or less for either side.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Health Care Reform - Will it Pass in September?
Barack Obama slammed his fist on the table and demanded a bill to "reform" the "broken" health care system before Congress officially recessed for the summer. Obama and his official media arm, otherwise known as MSNBC, were certain that his wish would be granted. By now, both must be in mourning.
Clearly, Obama's problems with health care are not limited to some recalcitrant members of his own party, the so called "blue dogs". With each passing day, it is evident that his main problem is with the American people who are abandoning ship faster than Rosie O'Donnell on weight watchers. Virtually every poll confirms the view that Americans don't believe Obama when he states, falsely, that health care reform will be deficit neutral. They have flatly stated that they would rather have no bill than a bill that would increase the already bloated and dangerous deficit.
Obama's generals, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, shifted their focus from a strategy of having a bill voted before recess to making certain that important elements of health care "reform" passed through the various committees. Then, they would come back in September, rested and tanned, and place a bill before the President like the good little puppies that they have become for Obama.
There was only 1 little problem with the strategy. The American people, darn them, are getting in the way. The evil, organized, right wing nuts jobs consisting primarily of men and women between the ages of 30 and 80 who pay taxes, abide the law and have genuine concern for the direction of the country are throwing the proverbial monkey wrench into Obama's plans to socialize 1/7th of the economy.
Do you want to know the truth about why the msm and liberals are trying to besmirch these good citizens? It is because they know the truth. This is a pure, grassroots effort in every way, shape and form. Contrast this movement with ACORN, manned by felons who break the law at speeds so rapid that it boggles the mind. The liberals and msm are frustrated that their efforts are being thwarted and that a single payer, publicly funded health insurance system, which 85 Democrats in the House publicly support, is in great peril.
Based on the anger of the regular people throughout the country, it is no longer the blue dogs who have to worry. Only those Democrats in the most liberal areas of the nation are safe to go public with the desire for socialized medicine. 95% of the other Democrats secretly dream of socialized medicine but would not dare say so publicly for fear of joining the ranks of the unemployed. John Murtha is the lone exception to this and he is a special case. Murtha is still suffering the effects of derangement syndrome and has yet to be cured. At this point, it is not certain that Murtha even knows what year we are in currently.
So the strategy to come back and pass health care "reform" in September hinges on demonizing the very people that Obama needs to support the measure. Over the next few weeks, we will most likely see 1 or 2 mainstream Democrats abandon ship stating that they can not vote for a bill that will increase taxes or contain a publicly funded and government run health insurance option. Democrats, after being beaten up by their constituents for an entire month, will think twice about voting for Obamacare. The flood gates will open and the support of many Democrats in congress will begin to wash away, Obama though is not a quitter. They will need to pass, something, anything that will help him save face. In the end, a greatly watered down measure will pass. Obama will hail this as great news and just the starting point to "fix our broken system".
Folks, take him seriously. Although we could win this battle, Obama and his cohorts on the left will still be fighting the war. We must remain vigilant.
Clearly, Obama's problems with health care are not limited to some recalcitrant members of his own party, the so called "blue dogs". With each passing day, it is evident that his main problem is with the American people who are abandoning ship faster than Rosie O'Donnell on weight watchers. Virtually every poll confirms the view that Americans don't believe Obama when he states, falsely, that health care reform will be deficit neutral. They have flatly stated that they would rather have no bill than a bill that would increase the already bloated and dangerous deficit.
Obama's generals, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, shifted their focus from a strategy of having a bill voted before recess to making certain that important elements of health care "reform" passed through the various committees. Then, they would come back in September, rested and tanned, and place a bill before the President like the good little puppies that they have become for Obama.
There was only 1 little problem with the strategy. The American people, darn them, are getting in the way. The evil, organized, right wing nuts jobs consisting primarily of men and women between the ages of 30 and 80 who pay taxes, abide the law and have genuine concern for the direction of the country are throwing the proverbial monkey wrench into Obama's plans to socialize 1/7th of the economy.
Do you want to know the truth about why the msm and liberals are trying to besmirch these good citizens? It is because they know the truth. This is a pure, grassroots effort in every way, shape and form. Contrast this movement with ACORN, manned by felons who break the law at speeds so rapid that it boggles the mind. The liberals and msm are frustrated that their efforts are being thwarted and that a single payer, publicly funded health insurance system, which 85 Democrats in the House publicly support, is in great peril.
Based on the anger of the regular people throughout the country, it is no longer the blue dogs who have to worry. Only those Democrats in the most liberal areas of the nation are safe to go public with the desire for socialized medicine. 95% of the other Democrats secretly dream of socialized medicine but would not dare say so publicly for fear of joining the ranks of the unemployed. John Murtha is the lone exception to this and he is a special case. Murtha is still suffering the effects of derangement syndrome and has yet to be cured. At this point, it is not certain that Murtha even knows what year we are in currently.
So the strategy to come back and pass health care "reform" in September hinges on demonizing the very people that Obama needs to support the measure. Over the next few weeks, we will most likely see 1 or 2 mainstream Democrats abandon ship stating that they can not vote for a bill that will increase taxes or contain a publicly funded and government run health insurance option. Democrats, after being beaten up by their constituents for an entire month, will think twice about voting for Obamacare. The flood gates will open and the support of many Democrats in congress will begin to wash away, Obama though is not a quitter. They will need to pass, something, anything that will help him save face. In the end, a greatly watered down measure will pass. Obama will hail this as great news and just the starting point to "fix our broken system".
Folks, take him seriously. Although we could win this battle, Obama and his cohorts on the left will still be fighting the war. We must remain vigilant.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Ron Santo - Hall of Fame
While I was happy to see Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson inducted into baseball's Hall of Fame a few weeks back, I could not help but think that the hall is missing something; namely Ronald Edward Santo.
Sadly, Ron Santo is a virtual unknown today outside of Chicago where he played his entire 15-year career, 14 with the Cubs and the last with the cross town White Sox. Henderson is certainly deserving of enshrinement on the first ballot and Rice, after a significant wait, deserved it as well. However, if the golden doors are now open to Rice, by all measures they should be open for Santo as well.
Consider their stats. Rice had 382 home runs, 1,451 RBI's and a career batting average of 298 during his 15-year career. He won 1 MVP, appeared in 8 all-star games and had zero gold gloves. He did not play for a world series winner and was on 1 team (1975) that won the American league pennant. He also played in an era that favored hitters. In the mid 70's, the pitching mounds were lowered and the strike zones shrunk in order to generate offense, largely missing since 1963 when the mounds were raised and the strike zones expanded. This happened because baseball's commissioner at the time, Ford Frick, thought there were too many cheap home runs in baseball. Remember, this is the same Ford Frick that placed an asterisk next to the name of Roger Maris who hit more home runs in a single season than any non-steroid doping human being ever.
That brings us to Ron Santo. He played almost his entire career during the dead ball era. The entire prime of his career was spent facing the likes of Koufax, Gibson, Bunning, Seaver, Drysdale and other greats on mounds that resembled small mountains and with strike zones that were generous to say the least. Still his statistics compare favorably to Jim Rice. Santo had
342 home runs, 1,331 RBI's and a career batting average of 277, which would equate to roughly 295 when adjusted to Rice's era. In addition, Santo was the winner of 5 gold gloves, appeared in
9 all star games and 4 times was in the top 10 in the MVP vote. Also, consider that Ron Santo accomplished all of this while hiding a severe illness -diabetes, which has since ravaged his body.
Today, Santo is a broadcaster for the Chicago Cubs and remains a very popular figure in Chicagoland. Clearly, he is disappointed by the fact that he has not achieved enshrinement into the Hall of Fame. Certainly, Jim Rice deserved the honor. However, by enshrining Rice, the Hall of Fame can no longer ignore Ron Santo. Simply put, it is past time for Ron Santo to be inducted. In order to receive this honor Santo must be on 75% of the veterans committee's ballots. I now question the sanity of any veteran committee member who does not vote for Ron Santo.
Monday, August 10, 2009
John Murtha Supports Single Payer Health Care System
Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha, representing the 12th congressional districts supports a single payer health care system. The source for the headline is directly from the far left group, Healthcare-Now!, that is lobbying for a single payer, government run, health care system. John Murtha not only supports a single payer health care system but is actually co-sponsoring the bill, HR 676, with ultra-liberal Michigan Congressman, John Conyers.
http://www.healthcare-now.org/labor-delegation-persuades-john-murtha-to-co-sponsor-hr-676/
Retirees are plentiful in the PA's 12th district. These voters need to ask themselves if they will be happy living in a system that will provide rationed care? That is what Murtha and the rest of the single payer proponents mean when they talk about Medicare savings. Are you happy with the savings coming from you? Do you understand what end of life counseling means? Are you happy with publicly funded abortions?
For the rest of the voters of the 12th district, are you happy being represented by a man whose associates are being charged with taking kickbacks allegedly because of their access to Murtha? To make matters even worse, Murtha's staff was telling callers that he would not support Cap and Trade, yet, in the end, he did vote yes. Do the coal workers of his district understand what is going to happen to them if this bill actually becomes law? The bill is not really about the environment, it is about wealth transfer. Why was Murtha's staff lying to callers? Taking everything into consideration, does Murtha really represent the interests of his constituents?
For people of the 12th district in Pennsylvania, I have one question - why would you elect Murtha again? John Murtha's support of a single payer health care system should be the last straw. On November 2, 2010, the people of the 12 district will have a chance to register their disapproval at the voting booths. It is time for the people to "retire" John Murtha.
http://www.healthcare-now.org/labor-delegation-persuades-john-murtha-to-co-sponsor-hr-676/
Retirees are plentiful in the PA's 12th district. These voters need to ask themselves if they will be happy living in a system that will provide rationed care? That is what Murtha and the rest of the single payer proponents mean when they talk about Medicare savings. Are you happy with the savings coming from you? Do you understand what end of life counseling means? Are you happy with publicly funded abortions?
For the rest of the voters of the 12th district, are you happy being represented by a man whose associates are being charged with taking kickbacks allegedly because of their access to Murtha? To make matters even worse, Murtha's staff was telling callers that he would not support Cap and Trade, yet, in the end, he did vote yes. Do the coal workers of his district understand what is going to happen to them if this bill actually becomes law? The bill is not really about the environment, it is about wealth transfer. Why was Murtha's staff lying to callers? Taking everything into consideration, does Murtha really represent the interests of his constituents?
For people of the 12th district in Pennsylvania, I have one question - why would you elect Murtha again? John Murtha's support of a single payer health care system should be the last straw. On November 2, 2010, the people of the 12 district will have a chance to register their disapproval at the voting booths. It is time for the people to "retire" John Murtha.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Sunday - Plant Free Zone
Ah, my soul feels cleansed. No Kos plants for 2 weeks running. I feel like a new man! If you happened to open this blog by accident, please check out the action at Rightpundits.com. I promise that you won't be disappointed. That is, unless you are a liberal. Your viewpoint will still be heard but definitely not welcomed! And other random thoughts of the day.
It is official. John Edwards has joined the Federal Witness Protection Program. He was right all along. There are 2 America's - the one we live in and the one he now lives in desperately trying to avoid the wrath of his wife, Elizabeth.
Cliff Lee is a stud. An absolutely great pick up by the Phillies.
Why have the race-baiting twins, Al Sharpton and Jessie Jackson, remained so quiet on the Gates incident? Are they concerned with studying the facts of the situation or happy that Obama is having problems? I suspect they both pictured themselves as the first African-American Presidents and are jealous of Obama who, in their view, hardly put any time into the "struggle" .
Sons of Anarchy is a cool show. Peg Bundy is a bad ass biker momma!
If Nancy Pelosi jumped off a bridge would most of the Democrats in the House follow? I suspect the answer to that question is yes.
Speaking of bridges, wasn't Obama supposed to be the bridge to a new type of politician? Why then do his actions resemble those of every other politician on our planet?
US Airways completely and totally sucks. In every way possible.
Oh great, just perfect! While we are going to recognize Ahmadinejad as the rightful President of Iran, we are not going to celebrate. Now, I have to cancel the planned outing to Hooters. This is just wrong. Aky was really looking forward to that.
Recent AP Headline: Obama promises health overhaul with or without GOP. Was he not the candidate of "change"? Oh, as long as you agree with his version of change. Thanks, I got it now.
The surge in Afghanistan is not going very well. When will we hear from Harry Reid?
When Ted Kennedy dies will they name the bridge in Chappaquiddick after him?
Nice work by President Clinton in getting those journalists out of North Korea. He is to be commended and I would have wanted him to do the same if one of my daughters was be held by those lunatics. I would have had one request - could Bill fly home on a separate plane from that of my daughter?
Whatever happened to Paula Jones?
It is official. John Edwards has joined the Federal Witness Protection Program. He was right all along. There are 2 America's - the one we live in and the one he now lives in desperately trying to avoid the wrath of his wife, Elizabeth.
Cliff Lee is a stud. An absolutely great pick up by the Phillies.
Why have the race-baiting twins, Al Sharpton and Jessie Jackson, remained so quiet on the Gates incident? Are they concerned with studying the facts of the situation or happy that Obama is having problems? I suspect they both pictured themselves as the first African-American Presidents and are jealous of Obama who, in their view, hardly put any time into the "struggle" .
Sons of Anarchy is a cool show. Peg Bundy is a bad ass biker momma!
If Nancy Pelosi jumped off a bridge would most of the Democrats in the House follow? I suspect the answer to that question is yes.
Speaking of bridges, wasn't Obama supposed to be the bridge to a new type of politician? Why then do his actions resemble those of every other politician on our planet?
US Airways completely and totally sucks. In every way possible.
Oh great, just perfect! While we are going to recognize Ahmadinejad as the rightful President of Iran, we are not going to celebrate. Now, I have to cancel the planned outing to Hooters. This is just wrong. Aky was really looking forward to that.
Recent AP Headline: Obama promises health overhaul with or without GOP. Was he not the candidate of "change"? Oh, as long as you agree with his version of change. Thanks, I got it now.
The surge in Afghanistan is not going very well. When will we hear from Harry Reid?
When Ted Kennedy dies will they name the bridge in Chappaquiddick after him?
Nice work by President Clinton in getting those journalists out of North Korea. He is to be commended and I would have wanted him to do the same if one of my daughters was be held by those lunatics. I would have had one request - could Bill fly home on a separate plane from that of my daughter?
Whatever happened to Paula Jones?
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Ronald Reagan - Abortion and The Conscious of a Nation
For those of you who have been snookered into believing that a solidly pro-life candidate cannot win national office and build a true consensus, I offer Ronald Wilson Reagan as evidence:
Reagan was staunchly opposed to abortion. Yes, he signed a bill in California that had the effect of liberalizing abortions in that state. However, he regretted signing that bill until the end of his political life. The above link was written in 1983, well before his re-election was assured. Somehow, he managed to win 49 states the next November putting an end to the myth that an opponent to abortion cannot win a national race in a landslide.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)